A convoy of civilians guarded by security forces, was on Monday in a mountainous area of gorges, an area of difficult access in the Sierra Nevada del Cocuy, 250 kilometers north of Bogota, capital of Colombia.
Carrying two urns with 130 votes from a Uwa indigenous reservation, where on Sunday the community had participated in the government considered the least violent elections in decades.
Read: Elections in Colombia: Enrique Penalosa moves to the left of the mayor of Bogotá
Suddenly, a group of rebels from the National Liberation Army (ELN), the second largest guerrilla group in Colombia, ambushed. All this, according to official information.
At least 11 soldiers and a policeman were killed in the attack with explosives and guns. In addition, three members of the security forces were wounded and two soldiers were captured by the guerrillas, confirmed Defense Minister Luis Carlos Villegas.
However, a statement issued Tuesday by the Eastern War Front of the ELN, in which the action is awarded, says they were 17 soldiers and a policeman killed in the attack that took place, according to the rebels, 4 in the morning.
The statement denies that members would Registrar (EMB) on the target group, as they had informed the authorities.
Yes you acknowledge that you have two soldiers in their possession and indicates that “will be released in the coming days”.
Sean are 11 or 17, according to the Center of Resources for Conflict Analysis, CERAC is the event with the largest number of casualties caused by the ELN to the police in its history in a single action.
And it happens in a crucial start formal peace talks possible context.
The statement said the guerrilla operation does not contradict their “desire for peace” and calls a bilateral cease-fire.
Wednesday was expected to negotiators of the government and the guerrillas met to define the final points that could lead to the next stage.
However, Monday’s action, plus four others attributed to the ELN in the past three days, it could jeopardize those negotiations.
Why now?
If the damage completely, its effects could even dye the agreements that for three years the government proceeds with the main guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), of which it is expected the emergence of a firm definitive peace before April 2016.
In this framework the country moves towards an end of the conflict more than 50 years, which has left more than 220,000 dead and more than 7 million victims, why the ELN escalates its military actions?
There are various interpretations, which are not mutually exclusive.
On the one hand, the idea that the guerrilla group believes that before sitting down to negotiate formally need be strong.
As if giving an answer to that possibility, President Juan Manuel Santos said on Monday: “If the ELN believes that these acts will win political space or strengthened in an eventual negotiation, is totally wrong is exactly the opposite.”.
Also for Ariel Avila, Coordinator of the Centre of Peace and Reconciliation Foundation, the rebels are wrong with that strategy. “The ELN has not understood that we are in a theme of peace, that society does not want war,” he told the BBC.
Moreover, the attack may be linked to an internal struggle of the guerrilla group.
According to the military authorities, the action was performed by the Battalion “Heroes and Martyrs”, which is part of the strongest ELN, which is estimated Eastern Front is 70% of the 2,000 members He has the guerrilla group.
The commander of the Eastern Front is Gustavo Anibal Giraldo, alias “Pablito” who this year joined the ELN Central Command (OSCC), which is coordinating the preliminary talks with the government.
The front that commands “Pablito” controls called ABC: the departments of Arauca, Boyaca and Casanare, Venezuela border areas where the ELN is funded by extortion, smuggling and drug trafficking, according to military sources.
It is believed that “Pablito” may be trying to strengthen the guerrilla structure in this action. However, there are versions that suggest alias “Pablito” is fully aligned with the rest of the group does not operate independently.
Finally, the actions of the ELN could be a response to the operating of the security forces less than a week in the department of Bolivar (north), in which nine guerrillas were killed in that group.
Indeed, in its statement the rebel group said Monday’s attack was a “response to the high level of militarization and repression across the country that seriously affects the regions where we operate.”
On Conflict
That looks a structural problem in relations government-ELN Andrei Gomez Suarez, a Colombian researcher at the University of Oxford, an expert in conflict and peace: the fact that the conflict between these parties did not lose strength, as if it happened with the FARC (according to the Center of Resources for Conflict Analysis, CERAC, the level of conflict between the guerrillas and the government it is the lowest in 40 years).
The cause of that to Gomez Suarez and other analysts is that the process with the ELN started late and has always been seen as a sort of secondary trading, leading to the guerrilla group understated look and feel the need to be strong .
But the government responds to force with force. Most likely these days to increase attacks on the guerrilla group, which could lead to a spiral of war violence.
President Santos and ordered the Minister of Defense and the Armed Forces “to redouble their efforts (to) intensify their military actions against this organization.”